May 2016:
March 2014:

Wednesday, February 5, 2020

Here's a question

I. Household Debt in Billions

Searching FRED for household debt the other day, I came across
Households and nonprofit organizations; consumer credit; liability, Level
and
Households and nonprofit organizations; home mortgages; liability, Level
and
Households and nonprofit organizations; debt securities and loans excluding home mortgages and consumer credit; liability, Level

Tidy package, I thought. Mortgages, plus consumer credit, plus everything other than mortgages and consumer credit. That's all there is.

Those three should add up to Households and nonprofit organizations; debt securities and loans; liability, Level, I thought. I wonder if it does.

Yup. On the graph below, I show the big number as a wide black line. I show the three components, added together, as a white line over top of the black. The white line runs right down the middle of the black line. The three components add up to the "debt securities and loans" number. Nothing left out. Nothing extra. It's perfect:

Mortgage Debt plus Consumer Credit plus Other equals Household Debt
(Click the graph to see it bigger.)

But that's not my question.

II. Household Debt relative to DPI

I remember seeing Household Debt Service data at FRED, back when a search for it turned up only four series: mortgage debt, consumer debt, the total of those two, and a "financial obligations" series that counted things that were not really debt (as it seemed to me, at least).

I remember ignoring the Financial Obligations series, and just working with the three Debt Service series. You could take Mortgage Debt Service and Consumer Debt Service and add the two together, and the total would be equal to the Household Debt Service series. Still is, in fact:

Mortgage Debt Service plus Consumer Debt Service equals Household Debt Service
The wide black line shows Household Debt Service. The narrow green line that follows exactly the same path is the sum of the two components. The two components add up to the "Household Debt Service" number. Nothing left out. Nothing extra. It's perfect.

(Again,  you can click the graph to see it bigger.)

That's not my question, either.

III. My Question

When you add up the components of Household Debt in billions, there are three components. But when you add up the components of Household Debt as a percent of DPI, there are only two components. The one calculation includes, and the other apparently overlooks "debt securities and loans excluding home mortgages and consumer credit". How can this be right?

That's my question.

I found the Series Analyzer and housedebt/about but it'll take me years to figure out if the answer is there...

If the answer is that "consumer credit" and "consumer debt" are two different things, wow, I need a link.

Wow, I need a drink.

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