May 2016:
March 2014:

Saturday, July 13, 2019

Following up: The 'oido' graph in Excel

My previous post here looked at the 'oido' scatterplot:

Graph #1: The 'oido' graph as a scatter plot

I was trying to update this graph from 2012:

Graph #2: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=bLT from 2012

But the lines that connect the dots in the new graph are mostly vertical. In the old graph, they are not.

If I had put a straight-line trend on either graph, it would go from high on the left to low on the right.

To my way of thinking, if the dot-to-dot lines generally run in the same direction as the overall trend line, I'm happy with what I'm looking at. But if the dot-to-dots generally run in a different direction than the overall, then I have to think there's something fishy about the overall (as with the Phillips curve). So when I saw the discrepancy in dot-to-dot direction on the two graphs, it didn't sit right.

That was, what, two weeks ago. Well, this morning I woke up around three, as usual, had my coffee, and suddenly had an urge to see the 'oido' graph in Excel. Here:

Graph #3
I made the graph extra-tall so that "one percent" is about the same size in the Y direction as in the X. It just seems the right thing to do. But other than eliminating potential misconceptions, making the graph taller doesn't change anything.

As you can see on #3, the general direction of the lines is from high on the left to low on the right. Same as Graph #2, the old FRED graph. And definitely different from #1, the new FRED graph.

Graph #3 is drawn from the same data as Graph #1. Excel disagrees with FRED about what the dot-to-dot lines should look like.

Also, old FRED agrees with Excel, and disagrees with new FRED.

I am forced to conclude that the new FRED graph draws the dot-to-dot lines wrong.