Graph #1: The 'oido' graph as a scatter plot |
I was trying to update this graph from 2012:
Graph #2: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=bLT from 2012 |
But the lines that connect the dots in the new graph are mostly vertical. In the old graph, they are not.
If I had put a straight-line trend on either graph, it would go from high on the left to low on the right.
To my way of thinking, if the dot-to-dot lines generally run in the same direction as the overall trend line, I'm happy with what I'm looking at. But if the dot-to-dots generally run in a different direction than the overall, then I have to think there's something fishy about the overall (as with the Phillips curve). So when I saw the discrepancy in dot-to-dot direction on the two graphs, it didn't sit right.
That was, what, two weeks ago. Well, this morning I woke up around three, as usual, had my coffee, and suddenly had an urge to see the 'oido' graph in Excel. Here:
Graph #3 |
As you can see on #3, the general direction of the lines is from high on the left to low on the right. Same as Graph #2, the old FRED graph. And definitely different from #1, the new FRED graph.
Graph #3 is drawn from the same data as Graph #1. Excel disagrees with FRED about what the dot-to-dot lines should look like.
Also, old FRED agrees with Excel, and disagrees with new FRED.
I am forced to conclude that the new FRED graph draws the dot-to-dot lines wrong.